Fantastic Finish - Presidential Rate too close to call
Preliminary results are in and it looks like Presidential candidate Otton Solís was not making up his so-called "hidden vote". With over 85 % of polling stations reporting, the presidential race is dead even. Oscar Arias has 40.6 % of the votes and Solís has 40.2%.
(results from TSE website English )
In real numbers Oscar Arias currently has 570579 votes, while Otton Solis has 565411. A difference of only 5168. During the night and early this morning the difference was fluctuating between 9000 votes and 6000. But as information from polling places straggles in the gap has narrowed.
These results are a shock to local analysts and pollsters, who had Arias leading by as much as 15% in the last polls only a few days before the election. The votes for Otton Solís have puzzled analysts who attribute the tight race to multiple factors. A big favorite is a so-called polarization of the country. Voters at the last minute deciding to switch their vote from one of the 11 candidates who had no chance of winning to backing the second place. This would be votes against Arias rather than for Solis.
Another factor is the slightly lower than expected abstention rate. While the rate is still high for Costa Rica, and compared to other democracies such as Spain and Chile where the rate was only 15% in recent elections, possibly voters who were not intending to vote did vote as the atmosphere improved on election day. And evidently they voted for Solís.
A final factor would be the analysis of areas and abstention rates by province, which ties in to the voter demographics. The voters for Arias, based on exit polls and geographic areas have tended to be poorer, less educated and more rural. Arias is winning by a solid margin in Guanacaste, Puntarenas and Limon. But these areas have less voters to begin with and are showing very high abstention rates of 38 %, 45.1% and 44.9% respectively. While voters in Heredia, San Jose and Alajuela are voting for Solís by a smaller margin, they are also more numerous and are showing a higher turnout. (29.9%, 33.4%, and 31.9% abstention rates).
In any case, no definite winner is expected to be declared until Tuesday night at the earliest. The preliminary results are based on reports that were emailed, faxed, radioed or called into the TSE as the polling places closed and votes were tallied. The official count begins Tuesday, as sealed package with the actual ballots are opened and counted at the TSE. While it is doubtful that any tampering occured at the tables, there is the possibility of mistakes. In some cases the table’s report was enclosed in the sealed package with the ballots, so the TSE cannot know the results for that table until the seal is broken.