In the latest report (3:15 pm Costa Rica time - GMT -6 hours) the TSE has released preliminary figures with 88.447 % of the voting stations tabulated.  The tally shows Oscar Arias hanging on by a fingernail to the lead, with 591,769 votes in his pocket. Otton Solís has closed the gap throughout the day, and now has 588,519.

So, the difference at this point is only 3250 votes.

The TSE has found that 4.446% of the voting table’s summaries are inconsistent.  This means that for some technical reason the results report is not able to be included in the preliminary tally.  However the court will include them in the hand count, after validating the ballot package and its contents. This leaves 7.107% of the votes to be tallied in the coming hours. 

Projecting the results in hand, the apparent (preliminary) outcome will be decided by less than 1000 votes.  So the next step will be to hand count the ballots.  The TSE always hand counts the ballots, but in most elections the winner is declared statistically and the hand count is just a formality. In this case it will be decisive. 

Although in the days and weeks leading up to election apathy was the predominant emotion, the actual election day atmosphere was bright.  While rain threatened some areas in the morning, the cold front was broken by mid-morning and this brought the festivities out into the open. 

A trip through San José showed Liberation and PAC supporters out in force.  The election day traditions held up, as supporters formed impromptu caravans which slowed traffic.  Gathering places like Guadalupe, San Pedro, la Fuente de la Hispanidad, Curridabat and the Central Park were hubs of activity. Supporters exchanged jokes and barbs, but in true Costa Rican fashion everyone just hoped for the best and violent clashes nowhere to be seen.
Some tourists were amazed at the scenes of supporters of different parties mixing so freely.  Peruvian tourist Ana Elena Prado said,  "I have never seen anything like it.  In my country, if you go out to celebrate and run into a a group of people from another party, your car will not get out alive.  Here, everybody laughs. I envy you.  I love what I have seen, a real party."

And the Ticos appreciate this.

According to Cecilia Zuñiga "This country is blessed. We are unique in the world.  We fall, we stand up and here we are. In this nobody beats us. "

Helber Jiménez, San José center "I want don Ottón to win, I don’t want anyone from a traditional party, we need a change. "

Margot Castro, San José center "The only thing I want is that someone with experience wins.  I think that that is don Óscar Arias. But I just want the best for the country."

José Azuola, San José center "I want the new president to form a good government and guarantee stablity, and above all good jobs."

Rosario Morua, San José center "I believe don Ottón will be the president that will get Costa Rica in gear.  I believe him.  He is sincere. He’ll put things right. "

No matter who wins the presidential race, Oscar Arias will not have a majority of representatives from his party in the new Assembly. According to the latest results, parties will have these numbers in the new Legislature:

PLN - 25
PAC - 18
Libertarian Movement - 6
PUSC - 4
PASE - 1
Restauración - 1
PUN - 1
Frente Amplio - 1

This means that the eventual winner of the presidential race will need support from one or more parties in order to pass any legislation.  The 2 most urgent items in the legislature will be the CAFTA trade agreement and a fiscal reform package.  PAC is opposed to passing CAFTA as is, so the lines are drawn.  The current fiscal reform bill is likely to fall by the wayside as well, in favor of a temporary measure while a new tax policy or fiscal reform is proposed or negotiated. 

PAC has already called for a revival of the campaign reform bill, citing the fact that this election was the most expensive in history and indirectly blaming Arias.  

These result spell a definite end to the two-party system with PUSC and PLN dominating.  The question to be answered over the next 4 years will be does PAC replace PUSC in a new 2 party system, or will the Libertarian movement and/or PUSC be able to make advances and establish a system with 3 or 4 strong parties participating. 

Preliminary results are in and it looks like Presidential candidate Otton Solís was not making up his so-called "hidden vote".  With over 85 % of polling stations reporting, the presidential race is dead even. Oscar Arias has 40.6 % of the votes and Solís has 40.2%. 

(results from TSE website English )

In real numbers Oscar Arias currently has  570579 votes, while Otton Solis has 565411.  A difference of only 5168.  During the night and early this morning the difference was fluctuating between 9000 votes and 6000.  But as information from polling places straggles in the gap has narrowed. 

These results are a shock to local analysts and pollsters, who had Arias leading by as much as 15% in the last polls only a few days before the election.  The votes for Otton Solís have puzzled analysts who attribute the tight race to multiple factors.  A big favorite is a so-called polarization of the country.  Voters at the last minute deciding to switch their vote from one of the 11 candidates who had no chance of winning to backing the second place.  This would be votes against Arias rather than for Solis.

Another factor is the slightly lower than expected abstention rate.  While the rate is still high for Costa Rica, and compared to other democracies such as Spain and Chile where the rate was only 15% in recent elections, possibly voters who were not intending to vote did vote as the atmosphere improved on election day.  And evidently they voted for Solís.

A final factor would be the analysis of areas and abstention rates by province, which ties in to the voter demographics.  The voters for Arias, based on exit polls and geographic areas have tended to be poorer, less educated and more rural.  Arias is winning by a solid margin in Guanacaste, Puntarenas and Limon. But these areas have less voters to begin with and are showing very high abstention rates of 38 %, 45.1% and 44.9% respectively.  While voters in Heredia, San Jose and Alajuela are voting for Solís by a smaller margin, they are also more numerous and are showing a higher turnout. (29.9%, 33.4%, and 31.9% abstention rates).

In any case, no definite winner is expected to be declared until Tuesday night at the earliest. The preliminary results are based on reports that were emailed, faxed, radioed or called into the TSE as the polling places closed and votes were tallied.  The official count begins Tuesday, as sealed package with the actual ballots are opened and counted at the TSE.  While it is doubtful that any tampering occured at the tables, there is the possibility of mistakes.  In some cases the table’s report was enclosed in the sealed package with the ballots, so the TSE cannot know the results for that table until the seal is broken.