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Meta
Autor: Writer
~ 02/02/06
The latest Demoscopia poll for Al Dia shows that the race is tightening for President. Oscar Arias still has a comfortable lead with 43 % of those polled saying they will vote for him. However this figure is down 2.5 % from 1 week ago.
Meanwhile Otton Solis has gained 1.9% and is now getting 26% of the vote. While the margin for Arias is ample, it will be a tight race on Sunday to see if he will garner the 40% of the vote necessary to win outright.
Dark horse Otto Guevara is now getting 15.9% of the vote, which is up slightly from last week’s numbers.
This poll was an experimental vote taken by 2,007 people who said they were determined to vote on Sunday. They were given a mock ballot similar to the official ballot for Sunday.
What Happened to Arias?
According to José Alberto Rodríguez, president of Demoscopía, several factors could have caused the drop. "A sector of his supporters are not very loyal, they were disillusioned by the PUSC scandals and were polling for Arias, but they may have gone back. Another factor could have been the weak showing in Sunday’s concentration. (Some media placed the turnout at 25,000 - about half of the expected number) Arias used a strategy of highlighting PLN’s history and flag could have ‘woken up’ another sector who said ‘ what are we doing here?’ and they deserted. At the same time Solís and Guevara have gotten the anti-Arias vote."
Assembly Votes According to Experimental Balloting
|
San José |
Alajuela |
Cartago |
Heredia |
Guanacaste |
Puntarenas |
Limón |
Total |
|
|
Liberación Nacional |
7 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
24 |
|
Acción Ciudadana |
4 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
13 |
|
Movimiento Libertario |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
|
Unidad Social Cristiana |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
|
Unión para el Cambio |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
Unión Nacional |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
Patria Primero |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
PASE |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
Renovación Costarricense |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
Total |
20 |
11 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
57 |