To Break or Not to Break? PLN Pushes for Legislative Majority
While many Costa Ricans have apparently decided on Oscar Arias as president, the battle for seats in the Assembly is fierce. Traditionally, Ticos voted straight ticket for PLN or PUSC. The current assembly is the most fragmented in years. Also the worst in many years! So now the question is will Ticos vote in the legislators that Arias needs to push his programs through? Or will he be faced with the same fragmented opposition that has dogged Pacheco.
57 seats are up for grabs, 40 are more or less already assigned and 17 are still in play. Here are the main scenarios according to analysts.
PLN
The National Liberation Party has a virtual lock on 24 seats. They could take as many as 32 if the voters heed Arias and vote straight ticket, or support the PLN candidates in their town. The last time PLN had 29 legislators was 20 years ago, when Arias served as president the first time.
PAC
The Citizen’s Action Party can count on 11 seats, but could possibly tie down 8 more. They started with 14 in this assembly, but break aways left them with 8 seats.
Libertarian Movement
The new force to be reckoned with has a lock on 4 seats, the same as in the current Assembly, but could have as many as 10.
PUSC
No matter what happens, the Social Christian Unity Party will set a record low for number of seats. They only are certain of having 1 seat at this point. If the recently released from prison Rafael Angel Calderon is successful in his efforts at revival of the nearly defunct party, then PUSC could steal as many as 7 more seats.
The Rest
Several other parties will jockey for at least 1 seat on election day. None have a lock on a seat, but any could gain one or two seats according to statisticians. Union For Change (UPC), National Union Party(PUN), Country First (PP), Costa Rican Renovation (PRC), Wide Front (FA) y Cartago Agricultural Union (UAC).
How are Representatives Chosen?
The process of choosing representatives is a bit complicated and the high degree of absenteeism throws the numbers further into doubt. Each province has an alloted number of seats, San Jose has the most ( 20 ) and Guanacaste has the least ( 4 ).
The total number of votes cast in the province is divided by the number of seats available. The result is a quotient. The number of votes each party receives is divided by the quotient to determine how many seats the party has one. The seats left over are distributed according to the votes left over by party. However, if a party did not receive at least half of the number of votes in the quotient, then they do not participate in this distribution.