According to the latest Demoscopia - Al Dia poll, Oscar Arias would win over 40% of the vote in an election held today. 

In the poll 45.5% of voters said they would choose Arias
24.1% Otton Solís
15 % Otto Guevara.

The other 11 candidates shared 15% of the vote and the margin of error was 2.8 %  Other candidates above this margin were:  Antonio Álvarez Desanti, of UPC (Union for Change), 5.4 %; José Manuel Echandi of PUN (National Union Party) and Ricardo Toledo of PUSC with 2.5 %.

As many as 35% of voters will not vote. 

The big news of the campaign thus far is the fleeing of voters from PUSC. In this poll only 6.9% of voters said they were PUSC loyalists.  In comparison 32 % say they are loyal to PLN, 13.3% to PAC and 8 % to the Libertarian Movement. Historically PLN and PUSC have garnered similar levels of support in polls and on voting day.

42 per cent of those polled said that before their loyalties lied with another party.  Of those 60% said PUSC and 28 percent said PLN.  21.8 % said they lost confidence in the party due to lack of confidence, disillusion and corruption.  8.8 % because they didn’t like the current candidate.