While many Costa Ricans have apparently decided on Oscar Arias as president, the battle for seats in the Assembly is fierce.  Traditionally, Ticos voted straight ticket for PLN or PUSC.  The current assembly is the most fragmented in years.  Also the worst in many years!  So now the question is will Ticos vote in the legislators that Arias needs to push his programs through?  Or will he be faced with the same fragmented opposition that has dogged Pacheco. 

57 seats are up for grabs,  40 are more or less already assigned and 17 are still in play. Here are the main scenarios according to analysts.

PLN
The National Liberation Party has a virtual lock on 24 seats. They could take as many as 32 if the voters heed Arias and vote straight ticket, or support the PLN candidates in their town. The last time PLN had 29 legislators was 20 years ago, when Arias served as president the first time.

PAC
The Citizen’s Action Party can count on 11 seats, but could possibly tie down 8 more.  They started with 14 in this assembly, but break aways left them with 8 seats.

Libertarian Movement
The new force to be reckoned with has a lock on 4 seats, the same as in the current Assembly, but could have as many as 10.

PUSC
No matter what happens, the Social Christian Unity Party will set a record low for number of seats.  They only are certain of having 1 seat at this point.  If the recently released from prison Rafael Angel Calderon is successful in his efforts at revival of the nearly defunct party, then PUSC could steal as many as 7 more seats.

The Rest
Several other parties will jockey for at least 1 seat on election day.  None have a lock on a seat, but any could gain one or two seats according to statisticians.  Union For Change (UPC), National Union Party(PUN), Country First (PP), Costa Rican Renovation (PRC), Wide Front (FA) y Cartago Agricultural Union (UAC).

How are Representatives Chosen?
The process of choosing representatives is a bit complicated and the high degree of absenteeism throws the numbers further into doubt.  Each province has an alloted number of seats, San Jose has the most ( 20 ) and Guanacaste has the least ( 4 ).

The total number of votes cast in the province is divided by the number of seats available.  The result is a quotient. The number of votes each party receives is divided by the quotient to determine how many seats the party has one.  The seats left over are distributed according to the votes left over by party.  However, if a party did not receive at least half of the number of votes in the quotient, then they do not participate in this distribution.

The latest polls show Oscar Arias winning in the first round, but PAC candidate Otton Solís says that Costa Ricans are hiding their true intentions from pollsters. "Impossible!  The word on the street is different, there is a hidden vote that will say ‘no’ to the candidate who is hiding. "  (alluding to Arias who refused debate Solis)

"There are many people who don’t want to respond to the poll." Solis showed confidence that "in the intimacy of the voting booth, thousands and thousands of voters will vote for a change."

The latest poll by Unimer for La Nacion shows Arias with 49% of the vote, Solis with 25.4% and Otto Guevara with 11.8%.  The poll also predicted a 30% rate of absenteeism for Sunday.

In a national broadcast, Otton Solís lamented that his fellow candidate Oscar Arias would not debate him in the final week of the campaign.  Solis accused " A group of people are trying to hold hostage democracy and they say that debating is fighting.  I proposed a debate to show that there is a group who has governed us during 20 years. During this time this group has favored certain sectors, handicapped farmers, and taken the middle class to the brink of collapse. " 

For Solís, the debate is vital for the Costa Rican voter, so that they may elect between 2 different paths that have been presented. " I proposed making a debate over ideas, proposals and trajectories, but this neoliberal group has said that they won’t debate, even if the Pope asked them. I want to debate because this group is promoting a trade agreement (CAFTA) that puts in danger our institutions, this group wants us to think that the CAFTA that was negotiated is the only way to development, but that is untrue.  Costa Rica’s social model has proven this."

The Tico Times Online
Among the issues that will sway Costa Rican voters in the upcoming presidential election, environmental concerns appear to have a stronger pull than candidates have taken into consideration in their campaigns.

Though a recent survey conducted for The Nature Conservancy (TNC) in Costa Rica revealed 73% of eligible voters in the country agree a candidate’s position on environmental issues could determine their vote, the topic has been abandoned during this campaign period, according to analysts.

Instead of focusing on the environment, presidential candidates have chosen to target other topics that weigh on the average Tico, such as the high cost of living and security issues, said Sergio Araya, president of the Political Science and International Relations Professional Association.

Although candidates have laid out environmental plans – some more detailed than others – in their platforms, famed political analyst Rodolfo Cerdas told The Tico Times these are not reliable indicators of how their parties would operate in an eventual administration.

“Platforms have become a mere conventionality, they are drafted and then tossed aside,” he told The Tico Times, pointing out that during his campaign in 2002, President Abel Pacheco promised to promote the amendment of a set of “environmental guarantees” to the Constitution (TT, Sept. 20, 2002).

However, the guarantees are collecting dust in the Legislative Assembly.

According to the recent survey, carried out by the U.S.-based firm Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates for the Nature Conservancy, an international non-governmental conservationist group, Nov. 20-29, 2005, the environmental concerns of Costa Rican voters are such that a majority would support the government if it dedicated more funds to protect it.

A total of 90% of 993 adults interviewed said they would support the use of funds to improve water and air quality, and half of these voters would take on the responsibility through the payment of fees or increased taxes.

In a statement from the Nature Conservancy, Costa Rica director Zdenka Piskulich, said judging by the concern voters have expressed about environmental topics, a large chance exists that the next administration could promote an environmental agenda with the support of the public.

“Environmental groups can also assist with specific initiatives with some certainty that their points of view will not be regarded as an expression of isolated interests,” she said.

With the exception of the United Left Coalition, which associates the exploitation of natural resources with the capitalist model from which it seeks to distance itself, most presidential candidates’ platforms coincide in highlighting the most crucial threats to the environment, analyst Araya said.

He listed water pollution, deforestation and waste management as top priorities.

However, the platforms lack clarity in explaining what exactly will be done to resolve these problems, Araya said.

Arias Prioritizes Water Issues

To avoid this problem, the National Liberation Party (PLN) candidate, Oscar Arias, ranked first among the country’s three leading candidates, worked backwards on his platform, according to René Castro, the party’s environmental coordinator.

Instead of developing plans to resolve environmental problems listed in the platform if elected, the party decided to make a detailed cost analysis before elaborating the platform, said Castro, who was Environment Minister during Arias’ presidency (1994-98).

Castro said the party decided to prioritize the topic of water conservation and pollution, and dedicated a significant portion of the platform to discussion of this issue.

National Liberation seeks to create a sewage system and water treatment plants for the metropolitan area as a first step, he said.

However, the party might not preserve the moratorium on open-pit mining signed by President Pacheco at the beginning of his administration (TT, June 7, 2002).

According to Castro, although Arias would not promote open-pit mining in the country, this is not a priority for the party, which would rather uphold a policy of sustainable development.

As for the Central American Free-Trade Agreement with the United States (CAFTA), National Liberation “is very clear that it must go forth,” but it will improve everything it can about the treaty, Castro said in response to whether the party would attempt to renegotiate the much-criticized environmental portion of the treaty.

Solís Focus on Education

Second runner up in the polls is candidate Ottón Solís’ Citizen Action Party (PAC), which is committed to fulfilling the environmental mission laid out in its platform, according to Carlos Quesada, coordinator of PAC’s environmental commission.

Quesada, a specialist in hydraulic resources, said the party will target waste management and pollution problems and focus on sustainable development and environmental education.

“Financial resources are required (to carry out the plan); much of it depends on how the economy will work,” Quesada said.

He said to curb the country’s waste-management issues, the party would try integrated politics, from new legislation to educational campaigns to improve the way Costa Ricans manage their waste.

As a solution to air-pollution problems, the party proposes “establishing a more efficient public transportation” system, which might include long-term studies and possibly electric trolleys in San José, Quesada said.

The party also proposes to renegotiate the Central American Free-Trade Agreement with the United States (CAFTA) to protect Costa Rican resources, especially water, from privatization, he said.

He explained that because PAC considers open-pit mining a great risk to the environment that brings few benefits to the country, the party aims to maintain President Pacheco’s moratorium.

Solís also supports passing of the environmental guarantees bill Pacheco submitted to the Assembly, but would like to review its contents, Quesada explained.

Guevara Would Eliminate SETENA

In his platform, third runner-up Libertarian Movement Party candidate Otto Guevara does not address the issue of environmental threats, and dedicates a mere four paragraphs of his 41-page document to the environment.

According to Franz Tattenbach, president of the Foundation for the Development of the Central Mountainous System (FUNDECOR) and environmental coordinator for the Libertarian Movement, their proposal is short because of its conciseness and simplicity.

In the platform, Guevara pledges to modernize national parks and promote the creation of private protected areas.

He also proposes to eliminate the “obstacle-generating functions” of the Technical Secretariat of the Environment Ministry (SETENA), an institution whose functions include the approval of developers’ environmental impact studies.

Instead of SETENA, known for its lengthy paperwork and the large amounts of time it spends in evaluating these studies (TT, July 2, 2004), Guevara’s platform suggests establishing clear parameters for developers and applying firm sanctions against those who transgress the law.

Guevara vows to ensure “environmental sustainability be present in different public policies.”

“We will give adequate treatment to waste water, solid waste and the conservation of our flora and fauna on land as well as in the ocean,” his platform says.

The party fully supports CAFTA and considers renegotiation of any of the treaty’s points, including the environment, unnecessary, Tattenbach explained.

The TSE announced that no votes can be made in the Costa Rican embassies or consulates by Costa Ricans living overseas.  This announcement came as a result of a petition filed by Jose Manuel Echandi, former Ombudsman. The TSE justices referred to ruling 2531-E-2005 of October 26, 2005, which stated that the TSE is only authorized by law to oversee elections in Costa Rican territory. 

The TSE also referred to an Electoral Code Reform that they presented in 2001 to the Legislative Assembly.  This reform is still pending (surprised?) , but within the reform it calls for the TSE to have the power to set up polling places in Costa Rican diplomatic headquarters abroad.

According to the magistrates. "The resolution of the petition by Echandi Meza is not a matter that this court may resolve, in spite of ample powers given to it by the constitution and the law.  The matter corresponds to another power, the Legislature, by way of a legal reform to the standards established in the Electoral Code that would authorize Costa Ricans to vote from abroad."

According to the latest Demoscopia - Al Dia poll, Oscar Arias would win over 40% of the vote in an election held today. 

In the poll 45.5% of voters said they would choose Arias
24.1% Otton Solís
15 % Otto Guevara.

The other 11 candidates shared 15% of the vote and the margin of error was 2.8 %  Other candidates above this margin were:  Antonio Álvarez Desanti, of UPC (Union for Change), 5.4 %; José Manuel Echandi of PUN (National Union Party) and Ricardo Toledo of PUSC with 2.5 %.

As many as 35% of voters will not vote. 

The big news of the campaign thus far is the fleeing of voters from PUSC. In this poll only 6.9% of voters said they were PUSC loyalists.  In comparison 32 % say they are loyal to PLN, 13.3% to PAC and 8 % to the Libertarian Movement. Historically PLN and PUSC have garnered similar levels of support in polls and on voting day.

42 per cent of those polled said that before their loyalties lied with another party.  Of those 60% said PUSC and 28 percent said PLN.  21.8 % said they lost confidence in the party due to lack of confidence, disillusion and corruption.  8.8 % because they didn’t like the current candidate.

Oscar Arias declared on Tuesday that he didn’t see any need for Jose Maria Figueres to return to the country to answer questions about his involvment in the Alcatel - ICE corruption scandal.  Figueres received $ 900,000 in consulting fees from a firm hired by Alcatel to "increase market share" in Costa Rica’s telecommunications monopoly.

"José María doesn’t have to come back because he has not been accused of anything. I think he should come, but it has to be his decision.  Not when we force him to come on a given day. He has said he will come, but he wants to take his time because he doesn’t think it is the right moment and I respect that. " 

This is a drastic change of opinion for Arias, who in October of 2004 said that the actions of Jose Maria Figueres "are a betrayal of the ideals of the party and the inheritence of Don Pepe. I am going to ask the party structure to expel José María".

The other candidates finally agreed on something, that Arias is wrong to change his mind:

Ottón Solís, PAC Candidate:

He should come, he who owes nothing, fears nothing. I understand why Óscar fears the legislative commissions, because that was where they revealed the dirty money that financed his first campaign. 

Otto Guevara, Libertarian Candidate:

Arias first asked for his expulsion and then changed his mind, because now it doesn’t matter.  He doesn’t have a firm position against corruption or impunity and shows the typical conformity of a traditional politician.

Ricardo Toledo, PUSC Candidate:

Many of us have gone to the commission, but he doesn’t want Figueres to come because don Óscar is dictatorial; he doesn’t believe in the First Power of the Republic. He only sees them as useful fools who will vote for what he tells them to.

Antonio Álvarez, UPC Candidate:

It is nefarious and scandalous that an expresident and candidate recomends someone not to come and face the questioning. If this is the ethical level that the PLN continues at, then it is a terrible precedent for  the country. 

José Manuel Echandi, PUN Candidate:

The declarations of Arias are inconsistent. A few months ago he wanted heads to roll and now he defends him. This is pure desperation to get 40% of the vote and the support of the "figuerists" that aren’t very happy with him.

Although there is no smoking gun pointing to the responsible party, the Libertarian Movement has complained about dirty campaign tactics including destruction of signs, threatening e-mails, a campaign headquarters in San Carlos spray painted black, and even fake flyers expounding attacking PAC in the name of the party.

Peter Guevara, brother of the presidential candidate Otto Guevara, said "We don’t know who is responsible, but come to your own conclusion. Which party would benefit by putting those who are in second place to fight amongst themselves?" 

Ana Gabriela Alfaro, Vice-presidential candidate, admitted "there is no proof against any one.  They only want to make it appear that we are involved in dirty campaigning to make us look bad, particularly since we are growing. We only campaign fairly!"

The flyer in question calls PAC the "neo-communist party" and that it belongs to "Extreme Labor Unions", it appears to be signed by the Libertarian Movement.

Just 2 hours after the polling stations close the TSE will have the election results. According to Elections Programs Coordinator Héctor Fernández, by 8 pm the TSE will have the provisional recount of 2500 polling stations.  This is sufficient to project the winner of the presidential race and the first place legislators. The data will arrive by fax, telephone, radio or will go directly to the TSE database.

They expect that by 3 pm on Monday, February 6th the actual ballots will have arrived by boat, car, bus, truck or even helicopter.  Each package will have a tracking number and a protocol for its transport.  There is also a toll free number for filing complaints about the polling process:  800-elector (353-2867)

Otto Guevara called on his rivals Arias and Solis to offer solutions to the Costa Rican people instead of calling each other names.  On Friday Arias called Solis "taliban" and Solis responded with "little dictator".  Guevara said, "the country needs solutions, not insults that degrade politics. The Expresident and his exminister are both traditional politicians who don’t see anything wrong with trading insults. But this doesn’t help in any way. The Libertian Party, on the other hand offers ideas and proposals, solutions to the country’s problems instead of insults."