by Rod Hughes

The margin is thin with 95% of the votes counted, but the Central American Free Trade Agreemnt appears to have passed in yesterday’s historic referendum. The vote results now show that 51.6% voted “si” while 48.4% voted no.

Official results from a hand count that will put each ballot under a magnifying glass will not be complete for at least two weeks, but the Supreme Elections Tribunal (TSE) count announcements through yesterday evening resulted in a celebration among CAFTA proponents. So certain was the pro-CAFTA campaign leader Alfredo Volio certain that projections were accurate that he announced victory in front of a banner reading, “Thank you, Costa Rica” that had evidently been prepared long in advance.

But opponents were guarded, begrudging even a hint that they had lost the long and often bitter debate about the trade pact. Anti-CAFTA campaign chief Eugenio Trejos told a crowd at the “no” headquarters that each vote would be scrutinized for fraud and constitional violations.

Otton Solis, president of the Citizen Action Party (PAC) who has bitterly opposed CAFTA from the beginning, was even blunter, refusing to concede pending investigations of vote fraud.

No election result has ever been questioned in this country since the creation of the Supreme Elections Tribunal in the 1949 constitution, following a brief civil war touched off by allegations of ballot tampering. In fact, this country has been cited internationally as an icon of democracy and its tribunal, a body independent of all political parties, hailed as an example for the rest of the world to follow.

Solis did admit to being impressed by the turnout and the result. In recent presidential elections abstentionism has climbed, climbing toward 50% as the electorate registered their displeasure with politics as usual. The referendum brought out about 60% of the voters, in contrast, well over the 40% necessary to make the referendum binding.

CAFTA yes votes won in the vital popilous San Jose province as well as in Limon, Heredia and Cartago provinces while losing in Alajuela, Puntarenas and Guanacaste provinces. But everywhere the margin was thin. It was the overall numbers that counted and even a one-vote margin enough to decide it.

Only two incidents, neither particularly violent, broke the generally good natured, festive air of the balloting. In San Pedro, a group of CAFTA opponents ripped “si” flags and banners from passing cars while behind the Elections Tribunal headquarters, anti=CAFTA students set fire to a pro=CAFTA banner until dispersed by police. Although probably a technical violation of the Tribunal ban on campaigning on referendum day, stands selling “si” and “no” flags, T-shirts and other trappings were set up across the street from polling places.

But Costa Ricans who had hoped that the referendum would be the end of the divisive issue and that things will return to normal may be in for a disappointment, warned the English-language weekly The Tico Times last Friday.

If the yes vote holds under scrutiny (and no reason exists to doubt it will not, despite grumblings from CAFTA opponents) the task ahead for the Legislative Assembly will be to pass 13 bills vital to implementing the treaty. Each bill is a reform of current laws that conflict with certain parts of the trade pact and PAC has given notice that it will fight each one no matter how the referendum fared in the polling places.